UK heatwave set to shatter June 1976 record as scientists issue ‘dangerous’ 45C warning
Britain is bracing for a record-breaking heatwave this week; temperatures will exceed the historical peak of June 1976 by several degrees Celsius.
The Met Office has issued a rare “red warning” predicting high temperatures of 39 degrees in parts of the South and South East on Wednesday and Thursday. This would shatter the 1976 June record of 35.6C by more than 3C.
This extreme weather coincides with the 50th anniversary of the 1976 heatwave; This event is remembered for people putting foil over windows, forced use of street standpipes due to water shortages, failed harvests and rising food prices.
Experts who gathered to celebrate the anniversary warn that such intense heat events will become increasingly common.
They emphasize that the 1976 heat wave occurred in a significantly colder global climate. Climate change, caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels that release heating gases, is making extreme temperatures both more frequent and more severe.
Looking ahead, the Met Office’s “reasonable” forecast for June 2056 paints a bleak picture, predicting peak temperatures of 45°C in England, 38°C in Scotland, 41°C in Wales and 30°C in Belfast.
They warned that a future 14-day heat wave could feature temperatures above 40 degrees for nine days; this is something the UK has only seen once in record heat in July 2022.
Heatwaves, and the hot, dry summers they can cause, pose increasing risks to people’s health, the ability to work, learn and take exams, food security, dangerous bushfires, major water shortages and impacts on the countryside and nature.
The future forecast was presented in TV weather forecast style by meteorologist Laura Tobin at an event in London on Monday.
The forecast warned that temperatures in the 30s and 40s were “dangerous for everyone” and warned people to stay inside with curtains closed, seek designated cool areas if they don’t have air conditioning, and stay hydrated.
Tobin, who admitted that he cried because of the impact this would have on people after predicting that the 2022 temperature would be 40 degrees at the event, said: “The idea that we will live in 45 degrees unless we significantly reduce fossil fuel emissions is absolutely unimaginable.
“As a mother, this isn’t like a weather statistic; it’s very scary,” she said.
Met Office chief scientist Professor Stephen Belcher said: “Heatwaves in the UK are becoming more frequent and intense.
“As we mark the 50th anniversary of the 1976 heatwave, the red extreme heat warning issued today is a stark reminder of the trajectory we are on.
“The duration of extreme heat combined with high humidity will present serious challenges for the health of communities and individuals.”
He said: “Weather is a national conversation in the UK and the summer of 1976 lives on in many memories.
“Our climate has changed fundamentally since then, with the average summer in the UK warming by around 1.4 degrees.
“Significantly the extremes have also changed.”
Professor Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, said: “1976 was an extraordinary weather event but it occurred in a much cooler world” and that a similar heat wave would have been 3 degrees warmer in today’s much hotter world.
He said: “The Met Office’s future projections to 2056 show that people born in 1976 could conceivably suffer 45°C temperatures in their retirement years, and that children born today in 2026 will have to cope with such heatwaves in their 30s, when they start their own families.”
Professor Hayley Fowler, of Newcastle University, said few people remembered the failed summer harvests, rising food prices, heat-related illnesses and deaths and the widespread bushfires of 1976.
“On the 50th anniversary of this iconic event, we are showing the public that if we do not rapidly reduce fossil fuel emissions and cope with the extreme heat waves we face in our schools, homes, hospitals and workplaces, these impacts will become a part of normal life in the coming decades,” he said.
Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change, said the UK should continue to reduce emissions because “this effectively prevents a world we cannot adapt to”.
But he told the Press Association: “Despite actions to reduce emissions, these strange temperatures, these unusual weather events, are the world as we know it.
“This will be much more typical of the UK, even below 2 degrees of warming.
“To make sure we are protected from this we need to expand cooling, especially where there are vulnerable people, care homes and hospitals.
“We need regulations to protect workers, especially those working outdoors in jobs such as construction, and we need to make sure our infrastructure is fit for purpose so our trains continue to run on time for the most part,” he said.
