Victorian Liberals to preference One Nation at state election
The Victorian Liberals plan to favor One Nation ahead of Labor as the default position in the November state election; Former prime minister Steve Bracks warned the move would legitimize support for Pauline Hanson’s party and hasten the collapse of the traditional centre-right party.
While the final decision on preferences will be made on a seat-by-seat basis by the Liberal Party’s five-man state strategy committee once nominations close, two sources with knowledge of the committee’s thinking said that in the absence of a particularly obnoxious candidate or other exceptional circumstances, One Nation would be preferred ahead of Labor.
While the preference strategy is designed to mobilize anti-Labor votes across the state, it risks creating a backlash among Liberal voters in the party’s urban and mid-suburban heartlands and energizing the turquoise movement.
Although it contributed to Labor losing seats to One Nation in electorates such as Melton and Cranbourne, it makes John Pesutto’s chances in Hawthorn, Jess Wilson’s Kew and Amelia Hamer’s Malvern more precarious.
The November 28 state election will be the first state election in Victoria where One Nation is expected to have a significant impact on the outcome. Bracks, who came to power shortly after Hanson emerged as a national political force, condemned any concession agreements made with his party.
“The only thing to do is to legitimize One Nation, and that is an ugly thing,” he said at the Sorrento Writers Festival last week.
He argues that the Liberal Party in Australia will suffer the same fate as the Republican Party in France and other center-right parties that have disappeared around the world if it continues to drift to the right. “This will be the beginning of the end of the centre-right party in this country,” he said.
In other comments on this byline, Bracks said the Liberal Party’s instinct to appease One Nation and its followers was fueling an existential threat.
“They’re telling people it’s OK to vote for One Nation and we support them. That’s a problem and it’s going to reflect on the Liberal Party.”
“The Liberal Party is not inherently racist. So if they are not racist, why do they favor One Nation? That is a puzzle they have to solve for themselves.”
The Liberal Party’s distribution of how-to-vote cards at primary polling stations in Nepean for Saturday’s by-election is a harbinger of the party’s likely approach in November.
Although One Nation’s Darren Hercus is seen as the primary opponent of Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh in the Labor candidate’s absence, the Liberals favor One Nation third in the ballot, ahead of local independent Tracee Hutchison. One Nation also tilts preferences towards the Liberal Party ahead of Hutchison.
Neither Liberal nor One Nation preferences will flow in Nepean if the parties come first and second in the primaries as expected. A Liberal MP who is not authorized to discuss internal party matters described the preference decisions as a “show of goodwill” between the parties ahead of the November election.
The Liberal Party’s bid to retain Nepean following the resignation of local MP Sam Groth is complicated by unrest in local party circles over the selection of Marsh as a candidate. Last week alienated Liberal members paid for a full-page ad in the local newspaper. Southern Peninsula Newsurges voters to reject Marsh.
Simon Schluter
Local Liberal branch member Richard Doery, 83, said he voted for Hutchison due to concerns about Marsh’s candidacy, which was approved by local and central party office holders rather than voted on by members.
“The main concern is that the Liberal Party has decided not to allow local members to vote for and elect a candidate,” Doery said. He added that he was “very uncomfortable with choosing One Nation.”
Mornington Peninsula Shire Mayor Marsh, who is currently on leave from the council and lives in Mount Martha, just outside the Nepean electorate, says the dominant factor in the by-election is disappointment with a long-term Labor government. Hutchison agrees, but says concerns about Marsh also hurt.
“We’ve actually had a lot of support from long-time Liberal party members and voters who are dismayed by the preselection process and left out of it, and we’re really looking for someone to represent the voters of Nepean, to live in the electorate, to vote in the byelection,” he said.
“Some of that motivation comes from long-term Liberals, but it also comes from a wide range of people looking for somewhere to park their votes.”
Nepean is One Nation’s first major electoral test in Victoria since opinion polls began detecting a surge in public support for the party late last year.
This follows the South Australian state election, in which One Nation decimated the Liberal Party’s primary vote, reducing its representation from 16 seats to just five, and comes ahead of the federal by-election in Farrer, where the Liberal and National parties favored One Nation ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe.
While Bracks maintains One Nation poses no immediate threat to Labor in Victoria, Kos Samaras, a former ALP deputy state director and pollster, believes One Nation will take seats from both major parties in November.
Samaras said Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, a member of her party’s state strategy committee that will determine preferences, faces the same predicament as Liberal leaders across the country.
“The Liberal Party in Victoria cannot win the election unless it wins seats in Melbourne’s central and inner city. That’s also where anti-One Nation sentiment is greatest,” he said.
“What is Jess doing? If she doesn’t go for One Nation, she will mobilize her right wing. If she goes for One Nation, she will crush the small c conservative vote in Melbourne. She has given herself up to this immorality.”
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Chip Le Grand leads our state politics reporting team. He had previously served as the newspaper’s chief correspondent and was a journalist with 30 years of experience.Connect via email.
