What now for Iran’s Supreme Leader?

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is in his secret bunker these days, knowing that he is now a marked man. He won’t be able to sit on his porch anytime soon.

US President Trump mentioned Qasem Soleimani and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi when discussing what the US could do next to help protesters in Iran.

The former, Iran’s top military strategist in the Middle East, was killed on January 3, 2020, in a drone strike just outside Baghdad’s international airport on the president’s orders. The latter, who was the leader of IS, killed himself and two children by detonating a suicide vest on 27 October 2019 when US forces raided his hideout in northern Syria after the approval of the president.

However, Ayatollah Khamenei also needs to consider the fate of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

He was killed in an Israeli airstrike on September 27, 2024, while he was 20 meters underground of a high-rise residential building in Beirut, where he was meeting with his top lieutenants.

The recent kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro by US forces in a daring commando-style raid in Caracas cannot be far from the Ayatollah’s mind.

However, it is not clear what impact the removal of the Iranian leader will have on the future of the ongoing protests in Iran or the future of the Islamic Republic. If he is truly removed from power.

President Trump is now weighing his options. So where does this leave the Supreme Leader and his regime?

Ayatollah Khamenei, 86, is a figure hated by most Iranians.

For years, protesters across the country had been calling for his ouster. He was a terrible leader for the country. His regime is among the most repressive in the world.

During his 36-year rule in the name of Islam, he pursued relentless anti-American and anti-Western policies and relied on Russia and China for his survival. He pursued a half-baked nuclear policy that brought the country the second-heaviest international sanctions in history after Russia, further impoverishing the country and leaving it in a difficult situation.

Efforts to create power in the Middle East have set the region on fire. Calls for the destruction of Israel led to wars with Israel.

Ayatollah Khamenei in recent protests green light to security forces to massacre protesters.

Internet blackouts in Iran make it difficult to get a clear view of the extent of the bloodbath, but thousands have been killed by security forces; This is indicative of the scale of the protests, not only in towns and cities but also in villages.

His removal, whether through surgical strikes or a commando raid, would certainly force a change at the top of the regime, perhaps paving the way for changes in policies and the direction in which the country could move.

It is not clear who or what will replace him. Chaos and lawlessness may follow. However, the Revolutionary Guard will most likely try to fill the gap and establish military rule.

Arash Azizi, a Yale University lecturer and author of What Iranians Want, says some in the regime would even welcome Ayatollah Khamenei’s removal from the equation.

“A significant segment of the ruling elite in Iran is ready to make some changes. Eliminate Khamenei. Eliminate some of the core policies and core institutions of the Islamic Republic.

“So they may even welcome US attacks as an opportunity to accelerate this process.”

The current speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammed-Bagher Galibaf, 64, is a member of the Revolutionary Guard with an authoritarian streak. He took off his uniform and put on civilian clothes. He openly expressed his support for the regime.

But Ayatollah Khamenei never fully trusted him. Regime insiders suspected him of being a wolf in sheep’s clothing, waiting for the right moment.

It is also possible for relatively moderate figures in the regime to quickly rise to the top.

Former President Hassan Rouhani comes to mind. It positions itself as a serious candidate for moderate Islamists and reformists in the event of the leader’s death.

Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, believes reformists are largely irrelevant.

“Actually, there are no reformists at all… They’re there as a kind of pastiche, cosmetic, etc. They’re completely marginalized.”

“Basically, there are those who govern and those who are governed.”

But the name many people are shouting on the streets of Iran’s towns and cities is the name of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah of Iran, who is 65 and has spent most of his life in exile in Washington.

In recent years, Reza Pahlavi’s popularity has increased in Iran, where many look back with nostalgia on the Shah’s reign, especially the 1970s. It was a time when Iranians were among the wealthiest countries, as long as they didn’t talk politics.

But Reza Pahlavi is by no means a unifying figure. In fact, many people claim that he is divisive. Failing to unite the Iranian opposition abroad under one banner, he has opted to go it alone, claiming that the nation is behind him.

And even if he is the only leader Iranians long for at home, it is not hard to see that he is in an impossible position to seize power. He has no organizational base in Iran that he can rely on to orchestrate his rise to power.

Many argue that his surprising popularity during the recent protests in Iran is because many protesters see him as the only candidate for power standing against a hated regime.

These protesters may prefer someone who has no ties to the regime and wants better relations with the West.

“There are very few places to accommodate protesters right now because these protests are about something bigger,” says Dr Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.

“This is about completely alienating Iran’s leadership from the individuals and the system that has been in place for almost fifty years.”

However, Ayatollah Khamenei, who spends a lot of time in the bunker, may be mentally reviewing what has happened in the last three weeks and how he got here.

He may be pleased that the regime has so far remained loyal to him. There is no serious sign of dissent or disloyalty in the Revolutionary Guard, which was created above all to protect the regime.

President Trump’s words gave the impression that possible US attacks on the bases of the Revolutionary Guard and other security forces could weaken and fragment them, creating space for protesters to emerge in even larger groups and overthrow the regime.

He incited protesters to continue speaking and occupying government buildings. “Help is on the way,” he said.

It is possible that the protesters, who largely retreated from the streets in the face of the security forces’ frightening desire to kill, may become emboldened by President Trump’s provocation and go out again.

Of course, many now believe they need foreign intervention if they want to end the regime.

But even if help isn’t on the way, Iranians know they will emerge again sooner or later, having learned a few lessons from the recent wave of protests.

Iranians have taken to the streets many times in the last 16 years to protest Ayatollah Khamenei.

The last round was in 2022 after the death of one person. young woman, Mahsa AminShe was kept in police custody because she did not wear her headscarf properly.

Protests across the country, which started with the slogan “Women, Life, Freedom”, lasted for weeks and were suppressed by the sheer force and violence of the security forces.

At that time, it was the oppression of women by Islamists that brought people to the streets; most people thought it was sufficient.

This time the protests were about the economy and bread. Investors cannot operate with the falling value of the currency, the rial. Many people cannot make ends meet. Poverty is spreading rapidly due to international sanctions and, perhaps more importantly, mismanagement.

At the same time, Iran faces shortages of water, electricity and, more importantly, gas, despite having the world’s second largest natural gas reserves. Neglect has led to devastating environmental degradation that can last indefinitely.

The Religious Leader acknowledged that the merchants and tradesmen who started the protests late last month suffered serious grievance. They said that the ever-decreasing value of money made it impossible for them to do business.

Ayatollah said that the country’s authorities are trying to solve the problem. But he also said that the problem was created by enemies.

According to Ali Ansari, lack of investment in public services has been devastating for the country. “The regime’s problems are deeply structural and go back many years.

“So even their own economists are saying that if we’re going to solve the problems we have now (for example, not being able to provide basic services to the public), it’s because we didn’t invest in infrastructure 20 years ago.”

Ayatollah Khamenei knows that he has no solutions to many of these problems, especially the economy, which can only worsen. However, despite the bloodbath of recent weeks, he may think that this is not the time to lose confidence; He needs to move forward with an iron fist.

After all, he may think that he is blessed to rule the country to spread pure Islam and please God.

Top image credits: AFP/WANA/Reuters via Getty Images and Reuters/Handout/AFP via Getty Images

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