Why betting Thunder -9.5 against the Suns feels like a safe play in a lopsided series
For the most part, we witnessed very good basketball in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
There are very few series that have sweeping potential. However, one series that is a bit tough is the series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns. Sports betting will always be interesting and that’s why we will bet on it.
The Thunder are the best team in the league and will remain so for years to come. League MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will get his second this season. (Side note, if you had to bet on his career MVP honors, I’d pick the under-2.5; the narrative around him already shifts to being a foul-taker and not as impressive as he actually is).
They have one of the best secondary options in the league in Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren hasn’t even peaked yet.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dribbles in the second half against the Washington Wizards at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on October 30, 2025. (Alonzo Adams/Imagn Images)
There are a lot of good players on this roster and they have some draft capital left. The only thing that could really stop them is probably the salary cap. Williams and Holmgren will probably be max players, and Gilgeous-Alexander makes ridiculous amounts of money. Apart from these three, there are very good role players in the team. And most of these players actually know their roles, which gives Oklahoma City great success.
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The Phoenix Suns have had a depth problem for years. They focused on hoping that a combination of big names could take them where they wanted to go. But it never came to fruition. They managed to achieve 45 wins this season. Unfortunately, this was only good enough for the 8th seed, which gave them a date with the Thunder. That seems like a bit of a ceiling for the Suns, but at least there’s more optimism than there has been over the last few seasons.
Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker passes Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort in the first half of Game 2 of the first round of the NBA playoffs on April 22, 2026 in Oklahoma City. (Kyle Phillips/AP)
Mark Williams was absent from the last game, and if he can’t get there, the Suns’ on-court presence will be even more vulnerable. Dillon Brooks is already a small power forward who is 1.70 tall. Can the Suns steal a game even if they’re not at full strength? They had enough trouble even when everyone was available. Devin Booker and Brooks have been very good and Jalen Green has been helpful, too, but stopping the Thunder is like trying to stop a freight train.
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Unfortunately for Phoenix, there isn’t much that can be done to win the match. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but they know they’re playing to make this a five-game series instead of a four-game series. They gave their best attack in the last game and played the Thunder for half of the game. This time it was a closer game, with the Thunder winning by just 13 points. Most of this happened when the Thunder stopped caring in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander passes Phoenix Suns guard Jalen Green in the second half of Game 2 in the first round of the NBA playoffs on April 22, 2026 in Oklahoma City. (Kyle Phillips/AP)
The Suns trailed the Thunder by 10 points in the fourth round, but the Thunder led by 26 points at one point. Oklahoma City won by an average of 25.6 points in seven games. They lost two games against Phoenix in the regular season. But the Playoffs are a different beast. The Thunder don’t want to mess around. They will win this one by double digits too, give me OKC -9.5
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