Analysis-De La Espriella’s win in Colombia cements Latin America’s rightward shift
By Alexander Villegas
BOGOTA, June 22 (Reuters) – Colombia moved to the right, electing nationalist lawyer and political newcomer Abelardo De La Espriella as president, accelerating the rightward shift spreading across Latin America.
In Peru, where authorities are slowly counting contested votes in the June 7 presidential runoff, conservative Keiko Fujimori is expected to secure the presidency by winning just over 0.2 percent after three unsuccessful attempts.
Colombia and Peru join Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia and Panama in moving rightward, in a complete reversal of the region’s so-called pink wave that brought to power several leftist governments in the early 2020s, including President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president.
Colombian law requires a final verified count overseen by notaries and judges, and that count was nearly complete on Monday. It is unclear whether it fully complies with the initial count.
Weak economies and rising crime across the region, including Colombia, have reshaped voter priorities. Once fringe far-right candidates have gained traction with promises of pressure amid the global rise of right-wing nationalism and U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to combat China’s growing influence in Latin America and establish greater U.S. control over the region.
“This is an extraordinary alignment of the stars for Trump,” said Steven Levitsky, Professor of Latin American Studies and Government at Harvard University. “You rarely see multiple governments come as ideologically closer as we are seeing now.”
Last year, Trump ordered attacks on alleged drug ships in the Caribbean, killing more than 150 people, launched a right-wing regional alliance called the Inter-American Shield, and captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a raid on Caracas.
Colombia’s Petro has been Trump’s most outspoken critic in the region and has been subject to threats of military action and sanctions. De La Espriella, on the contrary, is a Trump fan.
A naturalized U.S. citizen who lives in Miami, he has been a strong supporter of Trump and had Trump’s support ahead of the runoff. He has promised to join the Inter-American Shield, crack down on drug traffickers, ease trade regulations, cut taxes and revive oil and gas projects stalled under Petro.
His victory came at a time when Colombia faced gas shortages and global energy markets were upended by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Experts say Latin America is poised to win as a global powerhouse, with vast oil reserves in Guyana and Venezuela (which Trump has promised to develop) and one of the world’s largest shale oil formations in Argentina.
ECONOMIC, SECURITY CHALLENGES
Right-wing leaders in Argentina, Chile, Peru and Colombia won support with promises of tax cuts, downsizing government and loosening mining and fossil fuel rules. But many face budget shortfalls that have led to unpopular spending cuts that have triggered protests.
Bolivia declared a state of emergency this weekend and began lifting blockades that paralyzed the country for more than 50 days as labor unions and others protested austerity measures enacted by center-right President Rodrigo Paz.
In Chile, President Jose Antonio Kast saw his approval rating fall after the Iran war led his government to raise fuel prices; Argentinian President Javier Milei’s austerity measures were met with repeated protests.
Despite promises to get tough on crime, security problems persist. In Ecuador, murders rose 30% last year, with President Daniel Noboa’s government blaming the crime on turf wars between splinter gangs vying for dominance.
Murders also increased in Costa Rica during the reign of right-wing populist Rodrigo Chaves. His successor, President Laura Fernandez, promised a war on crime, but murders remained high as the small Central American country became a major shipping point for South American cocaine destined for the United States and Europe.
HARD TEST
Analysts say drug trafficking, illegal mining and low state presence in some parts of Colombia will pose a tough test for De La Espriella.
De La Espriella won by less than 1 percent and must govern with a divided Congress where his rival Ivan Cepeda’s Historical Pact party has more seats than any other.
Cepeda said Monday that he would wait for the final tally results certified by judges before officially accepting them, and that his campaign had objected to the tally from more than 57,000 ballot boxes, about half the national total.
Saying that his party and the left are a great political force and open to dialogue, Cepeda added that De La Espriella should treat him, Petro and his supporters with respect. He also appealed for calm to his constituents after scattered protests overnight in some cities.
De La Espriella’s dressing style and mega-prison promises have led to comparisons with El Salvador leader Nayib Bukele, who has called him “the coolest dictator in the world.” De La Espriella denied impersonating Bukele.
“Colombia is a much larger and much more complex country to govern than El Salvador, and importing El Salvador’s security solutions into Colombia is not possible, legally, budgetarily, or in terms of international participation,” said Sergio Guzman, founder of Colombia Risk Analysis.
Harvard’s Levitsky said De La Espriella would need to work with Colombia’s strong democratic institutions to pass reforms and “could get into trouble if he tried to be more radical.”
(Reporting by Alexander Villegas; Editing by Julia Symmes Cobb, Himani Sarkar and Will Dunham)
