Buy now or wait out the conflict?

As airfares continue to rise amid the Iran war, potential travelers may be wondering: Should I buy my plane ticket now, or wait to see if things improve?

Travel experts say the best option is often to buy sooner rather than later.

“Whether you’re thinking of traveling in two weeks, two months, or even looking forward to fall travel, waiting to buy a plane ticket … hoping the conflict will end soon is actually riskier than some of the fashion choices we make as teenagers: Our future selves won’t be happy about it,” said travel expert Katy Nastro of the travel deal website Going.

In short: “If it fits your budget right now, don’t put it off,” Nastro said.

Airfare prices typically increase as the high-demand summer travel season approaches.

But prices have risen more sharply than usual this year amid an oil supply shock triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict between the United States and Israel that began on February 28. He launched an attack on Iran.

The average round-trip domestic flight cost was $361 as of April 20. weekly data from Kayak, a travel search engine. This price rose nearly 8% from $335 on February 23, before the Iran war began. It is also up 19% from $304 a year ago at the end of April 2025.

International fares have increased even more in recent months: According to Kayak, the average round-trip flight hit $1,097 on April 20; That’s up 42% from $774 on Feb. 23 and up 14% from the previous year.

Airlines are increasing their summer prices largely due to the cost of jet fuel, according to Hayley Berg, chief economist at travel booking app Hopper.

Jet fuel is one of airlines’ largest operating costs, typically accounting for 20% to 30% of total expenses, making jet fuel a “major driver” of airfares, Berg wrote in an email.

There is Iran and the USA It has made rival attempts to inflict economic damage on the other and raise global oil prices by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes.

The price of U.S. jet fuel, which is refined from crude oil, has risen nearly 82% since the start of the Iran war, rising from $2.50 on Feb. 27 to $4.56 per gallon on Wednesday, according to Argus Media. jet fuel price index.

Berg wrote that airlines must either absorb these extra costs or pass them on through pricing to offset the “materially higher” costs per flight.

In addition to increasing ticket prices, airlines have taken measures to manage this negative impact, such as increasing baggage fees, adding fuel surcharges and shortening flight schedules.

The degree of impact on consumers varies by route, Berg wrote.

For example, the price impact may be more limited on shorter flights because fuel accounts for a smaller share of total operating costs, he wrote. But fuel becomes the “dominant cost driver” on longer flights, so movements in fuel prices have a more direct and significant impact on those passengers, he wrote.

Berg said he estimates higher fuel costs have increased summer airfares by about 10% over Hopper’s expectations. He wrote that ticket prices to Europe, the most preferred travel destination for Americans during the summer months, increased by approximately 9 percent.

“Since the outcome of the current conflict is unknown, we do not know how fuel prices will trend this summer,” Berg wrote. “Travelers looking to book domestic or international flights for the summer should start monitoring prices now. If they see a good deal, we recommend they go ahead and buy!”

Even if the war were to end in the near future, it would likely take months for the situation to return to normal, experts said.

Nastro said it would take time to rebuild oil infrastructure in the Middle East, for example, and overcome delays in oil production.

“Wait [to buy]Because that’s a risk you don’t want to take at this point,” he said. “By thinking the wage will drop significantly, you run the risk of it not dropping at all.”

He said this logic applies to flights in September and October, as well as summer travel.

War aside, flight tickets can be volatile, experts said. And plane tickets tend to be more expensive in the weeks and months before departure.

They said travelers can often snag the best deals by buying months in advance and not waiting until the last minute.

Nastro calls this the “Goldilocks” window.

Domestic travelers typically get the best prices when purchasing about three to seven months in advance of their trip, while international travelers typically do so four to 10 months in advance, Nastro said.

Berg offered a similar timeline, depending on the destination. He recommended:

• Domestic flights: Start monitoring prices three to four months before travel and book one to two months in advance;
• Travels to Europe: Start monitoring prices seven to eight months before departure and book three to six months in advance;
• trips to Asia, Australia and Africa: Monitor prices seven to eight months in advance and book longer-distance international trips five to seven months in advance.

Travelers who have not yet booked a trip may also consider flying in the fall instead of flying in the summer to save money and/or postpone until there is more clarity on the Iran war, Berg said.

“Flying in September or October can provide significant savings compared to the peak summer months, especially when traveling to international destinations such as Europe,” he said.