Celtic nations begin to plan for breakup of UK in event of Reform election win | Politics

The rise of Nigel Farage has prompted political leaders in Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to gamble with the unthinkable: the breakup of the United Kingdom.

Unionists who want to save the union and nationalists who want to end it are bracing for constitutional turmoil if Reform UK emerges victorious after the next election – with Farage becoming prime minister or formal leader of the opposition.

Representatives of both parties believe a government led by Farage could trigger a hasty referendum on Irish unification and lead to a Trump-style anti-immigration crackdown that would alienate the Celtic nations. The prospect of a strong Reformation opposition or coalition frightens nations equally.

“It is conceivable that in just a few years people on the island of Ireland will be looking across the Irish Sea to a country where ICE-like purse-snatch squads are arresting people on the streets,” former first minister of Wales Mark Drakeford said, referring to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Drakeford, who has repeatedly said he will fight to preserve the union, is concerned that politics in Britain has changed irreversibly and fears there may be “no time left” for a detailed debate about the future of the UK if Farage reaches Downing Street or Reform significantly increases the number of seats in parliament from the eight it currently has.

“The United Kingdom is a voluntary union of four nations, and within any voluntary union there must be choices people can make to stay and choices they can make to leave.”

The former Welsh Labor leader made the warnings at a conference organized by the Social Democratic and Labor Party (SDLP) in Belfast last week; During this conference figures from across the UK and Ireland voiced concerns about the risk of a “backslide” vote on Irish unification.

Irish justice minister Jim O’Callaghan said Dublin should start preparing for reunification rather than waiting for British nationalism to set the timetable. “The future may not go down the predictable path of debate and harmony,” he said.

Irish leaders think Britain’s annual subsidy to Northern Ireland, estimated at between £6bn and £20bn, could become a catchphrase for Farage; much like the claim that the EU is costing Britain £350 million every week during Brexit.

“Wait until you see our bill,” said SDLP leader Claire Hanna. “I think if British nationalists dig deep into the resources that Northern Ireland needs, it could become a political football, a political issue.”

“Brexit was a lesson in how not to amend the constitution, and British politics has changed structurally since then,” Hanna said. “Unfortunately, we can no longer say that the Nigel Farage phenomenon is a flash in the pan. It is now a feature of UK politics. So it would be prudent for us to think about our own constitutional future and not be passengers wherever politics wants to take us.”

Sinn Féin has campaigned for a merger referendum that the British government can call at any time, but it wants consultation and preparation. “We can’t risk our chances on developments from London,” said Conor Murphy, a former Stormont Sinn Féin finance minister at Stormont who is now an Irish senator.

Murphy estimated the subsidy for Northern Ireland at less than £6bn but said Farage could weaponise the £20bn estimate. “He could have said: ‘We’ll save this by letting the Irish go, good luck to you and farewell.’ He could do this. I’m not saying he will, but that’s the nature of his policies. Similar to Trump. “This is unpredictable.”

Murphy said Sinn Féin had called on Dublin to engage with its UK counterparts “though there are reasonable people in Whitehall” to clarify the terms and conditions of the referendum. “Establish the foundation, establish the ground rules, and make sure they are at least insulated from the chaos that may arise.”

Fine Gael, which is in Ireland’s ruling coalition, recently said it would publish a plan for a united Ireland at the party’s annual conference in November.

Leo Varadkar, a former taoiseach and Fine Gael leader, said he did not think a Farage-led government was likely but believed Ireland could be “relegated” to a border poll if it happened. “The accelerator could be a Reform-led UK government that doubles down on Brexit, takes the view that Brexit failed because it wasn’t done properly, and seeks a harsher departure from the EU and re-raises these questions around the ECHR. [European convention on human rights].”

Farage has said he wants to leave the ECHR and renegotiate the Good Friday agreement, which the convention supports, in order to stop small boat crossings into the UK.

In their 15th survey on the UK and EU in Northern Ireland, Queen’s University Belfast professors Katy Hayward and David Phinnemore found that support for repealing the ECHR was much higher in Northern Ireland (36%) than in the UK as a whole (29%).

This support, which indicates a new frontier for Brexiteers, rises to 77% among Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) voters and 93% among Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) voters, with whom Farage has an electoral agreement.

In a separate context, loyalists found common cause with the British far-right during last month’s race riots in Belfast.

Jon Burrows, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) in Northern Ireland, expressed concern that Farage’s brand of English nationalism could “ignite” nationalism in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. “It could create more fertile ground for those who want to break up the UK.”

He said unionists should support the UK’s economic and national security advantages. “I’m trying to get our message out more and more about what Northern Ireland brings to the union.”

He said control of the seas and underwater cables was vital to Britain’s national security. “I think behind the scenes the security services will be concerned about Northern Ireland seceding from the United Kingdom. The island of Ireland would be a national security vulnerability.” Northern Ireland has 3% of the UK’s population but produces 10% of its food, the UUP leader said. “There are so many things that Northern Ireland is good at, we need to have that discussion.”

Nationalists and unionists have challenged Northern Ireland’s constitutional status since its formation, but the question mark over other countries in the UK suggests this is a different moment.

Stephen Gethin, of the Scottish National party MSP, told the conference that while he lived in England he was struck by the lack of participation in the UK’s constitutional future. “How can we include Britain and the British in this debate? Because they are an important part of our shared islands.”

Drakeford, who is first minister in Cardiff until 2024, said he hoped England would survive and grow stronger, but said English nationalism risked leaving Scotland and Northern Ireland behind, leaving Wales a “progressive pimple” on the rest of England.

Under this scenario, he said, Wales could hope to unite with Ireland and Scotland in a new Celtic union modeled on the Nordic Council. Even those in favor of the union should consider the possibility of dissolution, he said. “We have to think ahead and prepare.”

Drakeford said the reform might not win a majority of voters in the UK’s next general election, but it did not need to. “The perversion of the primary election system means that you can form a government with a huge majority, like the one we have now, with 34% of the vote.”

In this scenario, he said, Wales could see “the United Kingdom changing so radically that its constituent parts” would be “better off elsewhere”. “From a Welsh perspective, this could lead to the worst possible outcome – not the Welsh people choosing to leave the UK, but the UK seceding from Wales.”