Quad, In The Trump Era, Still Alive, But Distracted
The 11th meeting of foreign ministers of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving four countries was held in New Delhi on 26 May. The group, comprising Australia, India, Japan and the United States, was founded in 2007, mainly thanks to the then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. As additional secretary (international affairs) of the ministry of external affairs, I had represented India at the first meeting held in Manila in August 2007, on the sidelines of the 14th Asean Regional Forum (ARF) foreign ministers’ meeting.
China immediately appealed to all capitals except India for its cancellation. It was assumed, quite correctly, that the group’s primary, unstated goal was to gently contain China. However, members had different levels of commitment to this goal. India under the UPA government was reluctant to unnecessarily provoke China. The Bush administration in the United States also remained hesitant, assuming that China would help check North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Australia, then led by Prime Minister John Howard of the conservative Liberal Party, also joined in. However, the Prime Ministers of Japan and Australia lost power in September and December 2007, months after the birth of the Quad.
The new Australian Labor Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, was a Sinologist who spoke fluent Mandarin. He abandoned the Quad, assuming that China could be handled diplomatically. Mr. Abe’s successor in Japan reacted similarly. Ten years later, in 2017, the group was reactivated at the ministerial level. Domestic political changes in Australia, India and Japan facilitated this. Mr Shinzo Abe was re-elected in 2012 and in Australia the Liberals ousted Labor in 2015. In the USA, President Donald Trump was elected in November 2016. In India, the BJP has been in power since 2014. Finally, in March 2021, the group was elevated to the level of heads of government. Therefore, the domestic policies of the member countries and international developments affect the functioning of the group.
The Quartet now faces new international factors. First, the global disruption caused by arbitrary tariffs that President Donald Trump implemented in February 2025. It ignored whether the targeted country was an ally, friend or rival. Finally, the US-Israel axis attacked Iran militarily, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as well as many of his senior military and civilian aides. Iran’s resistance and determination to retaliate have created a stalemate that has disrupted energy supplies and trade. Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman calls this the “3F” dilemma, which affects fuel, fertilizer and foreign exchange.
Basically, the establishment of the Quad was based on the China factor. But the Trump administration has shifted its focus to its differences with NATO allies, even raising issues such as the forced annexation of Greenland and the Iran war. President Donald Trump visited Beijing earlier this month for a summit with President Xi Jinping.
His sycophantic attitude did not reflect a desire to control China. America’s claimed achievements have not been verified by China. Australian Prime Minister Antony Albanese said that the United States under Donald Trump is “playing a different role” by changing global dynamics. Australia is reaching out to France, Canada and Japan to form an alliance among the so-called “middle powers”. Australia is also curious about the effectiveness of the alliance with the UK and the US, called AUKUS. The three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines that the US has promised to supply to Australia are still unavailable.
Despite the superficial beauty of India-US relations, obstacles remain. A bilateral trade agreement is incomplete, and President Trump continues to impress Pakistan and its Army chief, Field Marshal Asif Munir, over his efforts to broker peace in the Iran conflict.
Finally, by positioning China as its main rival in the new bipolar order, the US downgraded India and undermined the logic behind the creation of the Quad. President Trump’s theatrical video call during the US ambassador’s dinner for visiting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his announcement that India will purchase $500 billion of US products over the next five years cannot hide the increasing unilateralism of US-India relations.
The joint statement made after the meeting of the four foreign ministers includes various issues; Although not named, China is the motivating factor. It begins by emphasizing the rule of law and the sanctity of sovereignty and territorial integrity. A “free and open” Indo-Pacific is being re-emphasized, along with sea lanes that must remain open to facilitate fuel, food and fertilizer supply chains. It is recalled that UNCLOS, the international agreement on the laws of the sea that the United States ignored to sign, underscores the problems of freedom of navigation in the Middle East and the East and South China Seas. The necessity of denuclearizing North Korea and implementing UN Security Council resolutions is emphasized. It highlights the central importance of Asean in stabilizing the Indo-Pacific region.
The joint declaration includes four sub-topics. The first of these is “Maritime and Transnational Security”, which covers real-time information sharing under the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). Condemnations of the Pahalgam attack on April 22, 2025 are listed here.
The second is “Economic Welfare and Security”. It refers to economic pressure, non-market policies and arbitrary export restrictions, especially regarding critical minerals. While the target is China, the global trade disruption originating from the USA is ignored. Diversification of supply chains is recommended. To ensure this, the “Quadruple Critical Minerals Framework” was created. It also envisions a “Quadrail Initiative on Indo-Pacific Energy Security,” which includes access to the Pacific Islands Forum and a commitment to provide cable connectivity to all islands by 2026.
This challenges China’s efforts to enter the huge maritime sector traditionally dominated by Japan.
The third element is “Critical and Emerging Technology”, which proposes “open and interoperable architectures” for 5G, 6G and artificial intelligence. This requires “robust technical standards”. The “full technology stack” includes critical minerals and advanced manufacturing, computing, semiconductors and related sectors. India and the US also signed an agreement for cooperation in the field of rare earths.
According to the International Energy Agency’s 2026 report, global rare earth reserves by country are as follows: China 44%; Brazil 21%; India 7.2%; Australia 6.3%; Russia 3.8%; Vietnam 3.5%; and the USA 1.9%. Frankly, the BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India and Russia) hold most of the reserves. So the India-US agreement is more about getting more technology and investment, even though it may not please the US President.
The last element covered is “Humanitarian Assistance and Emergency Response”. In fact, four members offered just that during the 2004 tsunami. Some see this as establishing the understanding of the Four.
As a result, while the foreign ministers’ meeting kept the Quad alive, America’s changing global perspective under President Donald Trump has undermined the original aim of the alliance of major democracies in the Indo-Pacific to seek to contain China through soft power.
