Russia’s shadow fleet linked to NATO drone tests, IISS report finds

As NATO allies prepare to meet in Türkiye, drone warfare and Russia’s testing of the NATO alliance will be at the top of their agenda.

Russia appears to have launched drones at European military bases and airports to test NATO allies’ response time and air defenses, using its shadow fleet of former sanctions-busting ships, according to a new report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Between August 2024 and February 2026, 144 suspicious drones were recorded near sensitive military and nuclear facilities in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Denmark, and in November 2024 over American air bases in the United Kingdom.

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“I have no doubt that the Russians are using shadow fleet ships as a platform to bring different types of unmanned aerial vehicles closer to various European countries,” Ret said. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who served as the commanding general of U.S. Army Europe until 2018.

In Germany, there were more than 1,000 suspicious drone sightings in 2025 over military bases where German defense companies and Ukrainian soldiers train in Germany.

Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council said, “Whoever is doing this is testing the reaction of the authorities, how the public will react, will they panic, will they blame their politicians and the authorities?” he asked. “They’re also maybe testing to see how we, as European countries, or European countries might respond to a real crisis there.”

This drone influx, in the airspace of a dozen NATO countries and Ireland, “has caused repeated closures of major commercial aviation hubs, disrupted military operations and penetrated the perimeter of some of Europe’s most sensitive defense installations,” the report said.

In 2025, mysterious drones targeted military bases in the Netherlands and Belgium, where the United States is thought to have deployed B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs and France’s ballistic missile submarine base on Île Longue.

“It’s a mix of espionage,” Hodges said. “But also psychologically, it creates a lot of anxiety in the people, scaring them so they can put pressure on their governments not to support Ukraine.”

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks at a press conference following meetings with EU and Irish presidents following the official ceremony at Dublin Castle in Dublin on July 1, 2026, to mark the start of Ireland’s eighth EU presidency. (Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images)

The Russian drone campaign appears designed to probe the response times and decision-making thresholds of allied air defense and civil-military command structures.

It also aims to identify vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, including dual-use civilian facilities, military logistics centers supporting Ukraine, and areas linked to the Alliance’s nuclear deterrent.

In addition, the campaign aims to impose economic and psychological costs on European societies by disrupting civil aviation, undermining public confidence in airspace security, and encouraging distrust and panic. Finally, it appears to aim to normalize low-level airspace violations that fall below the threshold likely to trigger direct Allied military intervention.

These sightings peaked in late 2025, causing the temporary closure of many European airports, including Germany, Spain and Denmark.

Sweden has become the only European country to directly blame Moscow after a drone launched into the sea from a Russian spy ship flew next to a French aircraft carrier.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected accusations that Russia is engaged in sabotage and surveillance across Europe.

Putin recently asked reporters: “What does all this mean?” he asked. “Name even one proven fact.”

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected accusations that Russia is engaged in sabotage and surveillance across Europe. (Vyacheslav PROKOFYEV / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)

But the IISS tracked the locations of Russia’s fleet of stealth ships used to evade sanctions and linked them to recent high-profile drone incidents, concluding that Russia could use the ships as a platform to launch drones while creating deniability. Drones often do not trigger radar.

On January 3, 2025, the Russian shadow fleet ship Arctica was sailing along the Danish coast when 20 drones were lost at sea after flying over the Danish port of Koege.

On September 22, drone observations led to the closure of Copenhagen Airport. IISS found that several shadow ships were in the area at the time, including Arktika and Boracay.

And this isn’t just in Europe. There have also been dozens of unexplained drone sightings in the United States. in the last few years.

In December 2023, at Joint Base Langley-Eustis in Virginia, unauthorized aircraft appeared in the skies above the base for 17 days, evading military pursuit and forcing the Pentagon to bring in private assets, including a NASA WB-57 high-altitude jet, to investigate.

In March, drones flew near Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, home to the B-52 H Stratofortress bomber, where the drones arrived in a pattern that suggested they were trying to avoid locating the operator or operators. The lights on the drones indicate that operators may be testing the base’s security measures.

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Sightings of panicked drones near critical infrastructure along the East Coast of the United States in late 2024 led the Trump administration to order the declassification of these investigations shortly after the inauguration to ease public concern; It concluded that the drones were mostly owned by amateurs and that there was no evidence of an alien threat in the majority of reported sightings.

The IISS says these are not hobbies that threaten NATO allies in Europe and that the culprit is most likely launching the drones from shadow ships at sea.