Why Australia’s ‘low unemployment’ claim doesn’t add up

Australia’s official unemployment figures are based on narrow definitions and exclusions that mask the true extent of unemployment and economic insecurity, writes John Haly.

METHODOLOGY of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABSs) is the default source for how the media and government measure and discuss unemployment in Australia.

However, these measures are arbitrary and invented by Capital to misrepresent the real situation. For example, notice how the default description is always. percentage terms It is based on an amorphous workforce base that is rarely disclosed or estimated, and is never expressed in absolute numbers. Percentages rather than absolute numbers are a way to camouflage rising unemployment figures in the Labor Force.

The absolute number of unemployed people in Australia, as reported by the ABS, has been rising steadily since late 2022, following a post-pandemic decline. ABS is not the only measure of unemployment as a measure of “individuals without paid employment or secured income through a job.” How you define this concept arbitrarily can exclude or exclude large numbers of people from the tally of the unemployed.

The ABS methodology contains many arbitrary criteria for unemployment and is constrained by institutional structures that, if changed, could completely change both the absolute number and the rate. This also applies to what is and is not considered the base “Labour” by which the rate is measured.

The inclusion or exclusion of an individual in these estimates is determined solely by a country’s adherence to, or interpretation of, a set of methodological guidelines established by the United Nations. International Labor Organization. Any change or deviation in a country’s methodology produces different results.

For example, defining “active job search” may change the estimated number. For example, limiting active job searches to the last four weeks yields a specific unemployment figure. Extending the time period to longer periods, even if it does not comply with ILO standards, Six-month call cuts in Italy The 12-month cuts in the North and the South will bring very different amounts.

“Accessibility” as a criterion causes similar differences. in europeThe definition of unemployment envisages an unemployed person as being currently available for work within the next two weeks, as opposed to the more “immediate” readiness for work requirement imposed by Australia’s ABS. This situation leads to different unemployment rates.

How a country views “employment” under zero-hours contracts indicates what its final unemployment measure will be. If like Australia all that matters is “business attachment” is nominated as “underemployment,” despite the fact that any job, regardless of working hours or lack of income, exists as a productive and financially indistinguishable alternative to unemployment.

A country’s participation in unemployment is determined solely by these prescribed regulations and the class for which these guidelines are created. The unemployment rate is based on the cutoff specified in the methodology and the demographic it is intended to serve. ‘For whom the bell tolls’ (to quote John Donne) is important and rings the bell for class divisions in Australia. ABS is ringing its “bell” especially for the capitalist class.

What I mean by “capitalist class” Veblen Institutionalistsubdivision of traditional Marxist ruling class. This category includes business owners and managers whose income is derived from profits because they accumulate capital through asset ownership and predominantly own the “means of production.” [Pluta & Leathers, 1978, p. 128].

The primary domestic use of statistics is to impose unimpeded access of the working class to the capitalist class. It is important to recognize that ABS statistics have been deliberately constructed to exclude all individuals without paid employment. I will prove my claim by examining the ABS methodology, some of which are included in their own books. 2023 online release.

ABS data does not include people who cannot start work immediately. Like Gareth Hutchens‘ Articles on ABC highlighted, freezes thousands of unemployed.

Unpaid labor in family businesses, street vendors or street vendors is excluded. From where? You may not be immediately accessible to the Capitalist Class because you are busy with other demanding tasks.

Prohibiting individuals from participating in government unemployment programs (e.g. PATH initiative). From where? It is necessary to abandon such programs before engaging in wage labor for the capitalist class.

Except for Australians who are forced to work zero hours for “economic reasons” but argue for an unsustainable work commitment. From where? Being allocated to ABS “business attachment“Existing for free because employment cannot be provided” operates as an obstacle to attachment to the exploitation of the capitalist class. During 2025, these figures fluctuated between 85 thousand and over 100 thousand people, while in 2020 they fluctuated between 200 thousand and over one million people (see Figure 1).

Review of various measures of “unemployment” (Graphic: John Haly)

Excludes unemployed individuals who do not have evidence of “actively” seeking work due to family, personal, or other obligations, regardless of the unavailability of regional job positions. From where? Arguing that the capitalist class has always had jobs that pay enough for working class participation (see Figure 2).

Roy Morgan and ACOSS compared and current work (Graphic: John Haly)

Exclusion of temporary foreign persons from the country 12/16 edit. From where? Lack of familiarity with the culture, work, and social environment can hinder the full assimilation of the working class into capitalist employment management.

Except for people employed by another organization, more than an hour within a month. From where? During the designated “reference week” or four weeks before its end, you were not available for private employment by anyone from the capitalist class.

It excludes anyone over the age of 65, regardless of active job search (see Figure 3). From where? Your age, physical ability, and other factors may limit your potential to be fully exploited by the capitalist class. We live with “ageist” discrimination that ignores individuals long before they reach the age of 65, regardless of their experience and abilities.

ABS measures capture an arbitrary subset of “real unemployment.” A place where people are not only unemployed, but also lack any source of income (other than government benefits or family support) and are subject to a list of exceptions. This subgroup is limited by age limits, active job-seeking behavior, immediate availability, absence of distractions, and the absence of any potential barriers to participation in capitalist exploitation at any time. This is a very limited subset.

Over 65s still meet ABS job search requirements (Graphic: John Haly)

Its size is consistently half to a third smaller than the physical number of people to whom the Australian Government provides unemployment benefits (JobSeeker and Youth Allowance). I should also note that despite thousands of people being banned, the number of people compensated by Jobseeker has increased since mid-2023.

While facing the media statements of politiciansLike those made by the treasurer Jim Chalmers and Labor Cabinet members claiming “unemployment is low” in multiple Twitter messages, which I argue is completely misleading. It is misleading, regardless of whether it is intentional, naive, conscious or otherwise communicated. As you reiterate this nonsense, be skeptical of the agenda and propaganda of the capitalist and ruling class.

This also has consequences for those employed; RBA’s Taylor Rule and leads to inflationary interest rates. Is there a more accurate depiction of unemployment that provides a more accurate assessment of individuals without paid employment?

Research the results Roy MorganExamine the methodology exemplified in Figure 2 and consider its relative relationship to ACOSS historical poverty measures. I added my estimate of the final figure based on the likely prevalence of child poverty, determining that the figure would be closer to 4 million. Since children under 16 are not included in any unemployment measure, poverty figures will always be low and larger than unemployment totals.

Over the last decade, the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) found this child poverty It’s within two percent of 16%, except when the government raises unemployment benefits above the poverty level. It is worth noting that there are approximately 1.5 million. ABS claims underemployment and the total unemployment total has no reasonable relationship to child-explainable poverty figures, making it quite unrealistic.

Roy Morgan implies that Australia’s unemployment rate has been in double digits for most of the year. The unemployment and underemployment rate combined remains above 20% and is more closely related to this rate. ACOSS independent poverty figures. But even if one is naively restrained in accepting the ABS figures, it is undeniable that Jobseeker payments and, like Roy Morgan, unemployment have tended to rise in absolute figures since Labor came to power.

In addition to unemployment issues, here is a cursory review (with them) of the two metrics for job openings in Figure 2: own problems with arbitrary measurement) and those resulting from different government sources and methodologies are woefully inadequate for our employment needs. To make matters worse, unemployment is rising by every apparent measure, while job openings are falling by every practicable measure. This is our economic malaise that almost no one in the media acknowledges.

Although the current government has demonstrated greater political stability than the previous decade of neoliberal conservative rule, which was characterized by dysfunction, Corruption and scandals under the Liberalsinternally it is still slightly less neoliberal and conservative. Regardless, for the actual millions suffering from poverty in Australia, this rate remains sub-optimal; ironically, morrison The government has shown that this can be mitigated.

But whatever the preferred methodology, unemployment has not improved and the Government refuses to intensify its efforts to improve the situation because “state capture” guarantees capitulation to the capitalist class.

There are solutions like ‘.Federal Job Guarantee“. Although this will face fierce opposition from the capitalist class (Hail, 2021). At a minimum, we must advocate that: “Full EmploymentPolicies reminiscent of those that resulted in less than 2% unemployment for most of the 25 years following the Prime Minister John Curtin’s initiative. At the very least, whatever our political leanings, we should dismantle the institutional and political narratives that claim unemployment is low in Australia.