With no finger on the pulse, crop and prices in disarray
India is seeing double-digit inflation in pulses for most of 2023 and 2024 after the government did not receive early warning to increase purchases or adjust import duties, they said, citing analysis of official data. The ministry is expected to announce the first estimates for kharif 2025 and the fourth estimate for the 2024-25 crop year soon.
In the past two years, while domestic pulses production remained insufficient due to weather conditions, it took time for imports to increase due to the late arrival of the tax reduction signal to the government. Imports of pulses have reached record levels, frustrating India’s drive for self-sufficiency in the protein staple.
The ministry has issued four different kharif pulses forecasts between October and September for the 2023-24 crop year; From 7.87 million tonnes (mt) initially, it dropped to 7.11 mt in February, dropped again to 6.86 mt in June, and finally settled at approximately 6.98 mt, approximately 900,000 tonnes below the initial projection.
Similarly, Chana predictions started at 12.1 mt but ended at 11 mt. The volatility continued in the kharif crop year 2024-25; The initial estimate, which was 6.95 mt in November, increased to 7.1 mt in March and 7.5 mt in May.
“The government should try to be nimble and keep its ears up,” said Yuvika Singhal, economist at QuantEco Research.
Harming Farmers
“When there are risks from adverse weather conditions, pest attacks or post-harvest losses, the government needs to fill the gap through timely imports to keep prices under control,” said QuantEco’s Singhal.
According to experts, the fluctuation in forecasts hindered the ability to respond to the decline in production in a timely manner. As a result, the country faced double-digit inflation for months with basic pulses such as tur and chana falling short in 2023-24 and was forced to resort to emergency import deals. While imports helped increase supply, domestic farm incomes suffered.
“Too much imports are taking a heavy toll on farmers’ income. This only benefits foreign farmers rather than Indian farmers,” said Suresh Agrawal, president of All India Dal Mill Association, adding that Centte should rethink its import policy.
Between January 2023 and August 2024, the government issued as many as 13 notifications changing pulse import rules, making long-term planning difficult for traders, domestic growers and exporting countries.
After two years of high prices, major branches like tur, urad, masur and chana finally saw deflation this October. But lower prices mean reduced income for farmers, which will deter them from planting pulses next season and could lead to reduced production and a new supply shortage.
Experts said production forecasts should signal impending shortage, especially as deteriorating weather conditions, erratic monsoon rains and the El Niño effect have already reduced the planting area.
While India consumes around 28 metric tons of pulses annually, it produces around 24 metric tons (by 2024) and demand is rising steadily with increasing household income.
To bridge the gap, the government has launched Atmanirbharta Mission (2025-31) with an outlay of ₹ 11,440 crore. The plan aims to increase production to 35 mt, including 100% supply of tur, urad and masoor over four years at minimum support prices, and increase the area under pulses cultivation to 31 million hectares by 2030-31.
