WMO warns of strong El Niño risk; India braces for weaker monsoon, hotter June
According to Vishwa Mohan’s TOI report, the UN weather agency in its latest update said there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing during June-August and there is a more than 90% chance of it continuing till November. The forecast has raised concerns in India, where El Niño is often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and above-normal temperatures.
Also read: 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August: United Nations
The warning comes a few days after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted below-normal monsoon rainfall for the country and said there was a higher chance of deficient rainfall in the June-September season. The meteorological office also predicted above-normal temperatures in many regions throughout June.
While uncertainty remains about the timing and intensity of the event, most climate models suggest that the developing El Niño could reach at least moderate strength and potentially become strong, according to the WMO.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event that will worsen drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves on both land and ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. He noted that the previous El Niño event in 2023-24 was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures observed in 2024.
Amid concerns over its impact on agriculture, the Union agriculture ministry has reviewed preparatory measures for the upcoming kharif season. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan urged states to remain vigilant and cooperate closely with the Center to minimize disruptions in cultivation operations. Officials discussed measures such as promoting drought-tolerant crop varieties, promoting less water-intensive crops including millet, strengthening weather-based advisories, improving water management and implementing location-specific adaptation plans.
Also read: Strong El Nino may strike; Climate change will make its effects worse
To provide timely support to farmers, Chouhan instructed states to activate district-level contingency plans, taking into account local rainfall patterns, water availability, seed stocks and crop conditions. Reservoir storage levels across the country currently remain comfortable at around 127% of the normal level for this period, officials said.
Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon is expected to begin over Kerala around June 4, slightly later than the usual date of June 1, the IMD said.
With inputs from TOI
